9 min read · Updated Aug 20, 2026
AI Bet Sizing for Polymarket: How Much to Wager on Every Trade
Getting the direction right is only half the battle. Sizing your bets correctly is what turns a winning strategy into actual profit. AI automates this.
Why Most Traders Get Sizing Wrong
Most Polymarket traders either bet too much on "sure things" or spread capital too thin across dozens of small positions. Both approaches leave money on the table. AI calculates the mathematically optimal size for every trade.
The Kelly Criterion, Automated
The Kelly Criterion tells you to bet proportionally to your edge. If AI estimates 70% probability on a market trading at 55 cents, Kelly says bet exactly (0.70 - 0.55) / (1 - 0.55) = 33% of your bankroll. But full Kelly is aggressive. Most pros use half-Kelly for smoother growth.
How Polifly Sizes Your Bets
- Edge estimation: AI calculates the gap between its probability and market price
- Confidence weighting: Lower confidence estimates get smaller position sizes
- Portfolio context: Existing positions reduce available sizing for new trades
- Correlation check: Correlated bets get reduced sizing to prevent concentration
Practical Sizing Rules
Never exceed 5% of bankroll on a single trade regardless of edge. AI enforces this ceiling automatically while optimizing within those bounds for maximum expected growth.
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