Polymarket Edge Calculator: Find Mispriced Markets Instantly

Edge is the difference between the market price and the true probability. Finding it consistently is what separates profitable traders from everyone else.

What Is Edge in Prediction Markets?

If a market trades at 60 cents (60% implied probability) but you believe the true probability is 75%, your edge is 15 percentage points. Over many bets, this edge compounds into significant profit.

The Edge Formula

Edge = (Your Probability - Market Price) / Market Price × 100. A positive edge means you have an expected profit. Negative edge means the market is pricing better than you.

How to Estimate True Probability

• Base rates: How often has this type of event happened historically?
• News analysis: What recent developments shift the probability?
• Expert consensus: What do domain experts think?
• AI analysis: What does Polifly's AI estimate the probability at?

Why Most Traders Overestimate Their Edge

The biggest mistake is being overconfident in your probability estimates. Markets are efficient most of the time. True edge opportunities are rare and usually small (5-15%). Consistent small edges beat occasional big ones.

Automate Edge Detection with AI

Polifly scans markets continuously and flags contracts where AI probability estimates differ significantly from market prices. This automated edge detection saves hours of manual analysis.

Continue Reading

Edge-finding methods\ Finding Edge on Polymarket Position sizing\ Kelly Criterion

Polifly.ai